U.S. Senate
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(D) J. Hickenlooper*
(R) Somebody
80%
20%
Governor
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(D) Joe Neguse
(D) Phil Weiser
(D) Jena Griswold
60%
60%
40%↓
Att. General
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(D) M. Dougherty
(D) Alexis King
(D) Brian Mason
40%
40%
30%
Sec. of State
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(D) George Stern
(D) A. Gonzalez
(R) Sheri Davis
40%
40%
30%
State Treasurer
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(D) Brianna Titone
(R) Kevin Grantham
(D) Jerry DiTullio
60%
30%
20%
CO-01 (Denver)
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(D) Diana DeGette*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-02 (Boulder-ish)
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(D) Joe Neguse*
(R) Somebody
90%
2%
CO-03 (West & Southern CO)
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(R) Jeff Hurd*
(D) Somebody
80%
40%
CO-04 (Northeast-ish Colorado)
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(R) Lauren Boebert*
(D) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-05 (Colorado Springs)
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(R) Jeff Crank*
(D) Somebody
80%
20%
CO-06 (Aurora)
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(D) Jason Crow*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-07 (Jefferson County)
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(D) B. Pettersen*
(R) Somebody
90%
10%
CO-08 (Northern Colo.)
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(R) Gabe Evans*
(D) Yadira Caraveo
(D) Joe Salazar
50%
40%
40%
State Senate Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
80%
20%
State House Majority
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DEMOCRATS
REPUBLICANS
95%
5%
April 23, 2008 06:58 PM UTC
67 Comments
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I literally just had this same conversation with someone else. I don’t think the Huckabee comparison is accurate. Huck stopped campaigning actively against John McCain. He was in the race and campaigning but he wasn’t running anything close the scorched Earth campaign that Clinton is running.
This fight isn’t going anywhere other then to the convention.
If you don’t like it, you better stop watching t.v., reading newspapers, turning on your computer….
Thanks! 🙂
Her superdelegate supporters will stick with her through June and then they will peal off. Obama only needs about 100 supers to break his way (estimating current demographic groups keep breaking the same way). She needs 250ish supers to break her way and hold her current delegates–just isn’t going to happen considering the number of people who have said that we must follow the pledge delegate count.
Her only chance and I mean only is to hold him to a narrow win in NC. The reality is neither has been able to make substantial sustained inroads into the others demographics.
Truth be told, there’s a lot of super delegates who haven’t committed one way or another. Last I heard there was something like 800 super delegates, and if we knew where even most of them stood, then yes, this would be over. Some undecided delegates might make their intentions known between now and then, but I don’t think that the undecided delegates will come out one way or another unless they have to.
That way they can vote how they want and say they voted for the winner.
about 500 have committed. that leaves about 300 left. Hillary has to get about 250 of those. Ain’t going to happen. In addition she has to hold the ones that have pledged to her, but that have said we should follow pledged delegates (or popular vote-here she has a chance depending on which count you use).
There are 794 superdelegates:
http://demconwatch.blogspot.co…
Currently, its estimated that Clinton leads the super count 256-232. 306 are uncommitted.
Apparently Hillary’s PA win closed the delegate gap by 12-14 delegates. Obama should win NC by enough to negate most or all of that.
Its nearly over.
It’s not technically over, but it’s realistically over. The superdelegates would be foolish to not vote for the candidate with the most pledge delegates, the most states and the most popular vote. In the end, that will still be Obama. Now it’s just a matter of time.
But until Obama makes an acceptance speech, I don’t think Hillary is out.
She’ll do anything to get the nomination
the bottom line. I completely agree.
That’s silly. She has been practically genteel in the primary battle. She has left herself and Obama outs leading to reconciliation when its over. And, there are ads that haven’t been played because this is a primary.
They must be really vile. When she loses, she can sell ’em to the Republican 527s and all they’ll have to do is change the text and voiceover.
Some times I actually worry about that, given the Presidential ambitions of the Clintons. And I don’t see Obama and Clinton on a ticket together – ever. Really, would Obama want the Clintons in the Office of the VP? Might give him one too many things to worry about if he were President.
as overtaking Obama in pledged delegates. She picked up about 200k last night so including MI & FL she is closer to Obama in the popular vote but is going to give up some of those gains in North Carolina. The popular vote thing is one of those “statistics can be used to justify anything” affairs. It basically is saying that caucus states don’t count.
I agree with Danny that she has little chance to catch Obama in the categories that this political race is supposed to be about.
The only question is, how much can she damage Obama in the meantime. Just as having Kerry lose suited her purposes in 2004 so she could run in 2008, now having McCain win will better suit her ambitions, giving her, at least in her mind, the chance to run again in 2012.
As far as the alleged electability demonstrated in PA and Ohio among white males, lets all remember something. Dems don’t GET the majority of the white male vote in general elections.
Bill Clinton never got the majority of the white male vote. Kerry didn’t either but would have won Ohio, even with the voter suppression and other shenanigans, if Bush hadn’t managed to peel off a good chunk of the black vote with wedge issues to appeal to black conservative Christians. Even so, Kerry DID win PA.
Dems, on the other hand, DO get the female vote, though not always the white female vote but a lot more of it than they do of white males. No matter what HRC supporters say now, when tempers cool the majority of Dem women WILL vote for Obama over McCain. The majority of Dem women who support Obama would do the same for Clinton. However, if black voters stay home in droves, McCain wins.
The fact that HRC gets a majority among the minority of white males who are Democrats doesn’t mean she can make up for the loss of black votes and, to a lesser extent, youth votes with white males in the general come November. There is also no guarantee that many of those white male Dems who voted for her in primaries won’t, in the end, be more comfortable with McCain regardless of which Dem runs.
To win in November, the Dem candidate MUST have the kind of large black turn out we’ve been seeing, capture almost all of that vote and must also compete well with independent voters. Obama has the better chance and we need him to be strong going into the general.
It’s been a great ride and Dem registration is up all over because of the enthusiasm generated by this long undecided primary. It’s great that so many new voters and crossovers became registered Dems so they could participate in states where the caucuses and primaries have mainly been meaningless in the past. But pretty soon the damage will outweigh the benefit.
I think BlueCat has it exactly right, and that we need to focus more attention on Hillary’s thinking. After all, she and Bill are said to be savvy politicians; why should we think they can’t count just as well as everyone else who says she needs to drop out? Ergo, it’s very easy to see in her actions–and most especially her strong negative campaign in Pennsylvania–a thought process that says: OK, I can’t win the nomination in 2008, but I can so damage this upstart Obama that he will lose to an almost-certainly-one-term McCain, allowing me, Hillary Rodham Clinton, to say “I told you so” and claim the nomination in four years’ time.
She has practically said as much by declaring that she AND McCain are qualified to be CinC, whereas Obama? Well, maybe not.
AND playing the race card over and over (Billy Boy in S.C., then Geraldine Ferraro more recently) is equally part of a cynical plan–trying to exploit the belief (and maybe the reality) that a black man or woman can’t be elected president. Wondering about that doesn’t necessarily make you a racist…but it may go a long way toward explaining mid-state Pennsylvania (“the Alabama in between Philly and Pittsburgh”) blue-collar voters who don’t want anything to do with, say, Philadelphia. Having spent a good deal of time in that quadrant of the country, I wouldn’t discount this theory for a second.
All the more reason (to beat an old drum) for superdelegates to step in NOW to end this misery and get on with beating McCain, lest we find ourselves in Iran in 2012.
According to Huffington Post:
With 99.4 % reporting, Clinton 1,237,696 54.6%
Obama 1,029,672 45.4%
So it actually IS under 10%. At least until that last .6% comes in….
You were posting while I was calculating the same numbers. Interesting to watch which figure is the currency of the evening blabfest (if I can stomach any more of it, which is highly doubtful).
Not because that’s what it REALLY is, but because that’s what the mainstream media reports it as. “Double digits.” The media is so frickin’ lazy.
If she puts her personal ambition to be Pres so obviously ahead of the good of the nation and the Dem party, there is absolutely no way this liberal will ever vote for her for anything again. And I’m guessing I won’t be the only one.
HRC is going for broke. She will risk anything including the party’s chances and her position with the party. She is nothing if not gutsy enough to take the ultimate gamble. HRC knows it’s all or nothing now and she’s going all in.
They say her strategy at this point is just to hang on as long as she can in hopes that SOMETHING will torpedo Obama. She thought she could do it with Wright and will be searching for a more effective weapon of mass destruction right up until the convention unless she can be forced out first.
Now, before Indiana, would be a really good time for influential supers to come out for Obama, help him win both Indiana and North Carolina and then have very good justification for demanding she give it up.
The fact that the Edwards are threatening to support her in North Carolina because they’re in a snit over Obama refusing to adopt the Edwards healthcare mandate makes me feel that much better that he dropped out in plenty of time for most of his one time Colorado supporters, including me, to switch to Obama in time for caucus.
But unlimited personal ambition can blind people to a lot of things.
are all those Hillary supporters who won’t vote for Obama no matter what. In the beginning I heard more Obama folks saying they wouldn’t vote for Hillary. Now it is the Hillary supporters who are increasingly saying, with conviction, they won’t vote for Obama. Obama as the nominee would be a road straight to defeat. Once again the Dems would choose a candidate who would snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. The super-delegate system was created to prevent that from happening. Too bad those folks appear to lack the political strength to do what they should–vote for Hillary because she can beat McCain in Nov.
because feelings are running so high. When push comes to shove almost all the HRC supporters and Democratic Obama supporters will vote for the Dem candidate over McCain, regardless. Many Indies who support Obama, won’t vote for HRC,though.
And since no Dem can win the presidency without a strong black turnout and the overwhelming majority of that turn-out, HRC is the one who probably can’t beat McCain since she has so emphatically thrown the black vote under the bus. Dems never win the majority of the white male vote in the general anymore anyway so the talking heads are making a big fuss over nothing much.
What a bunch of fiction (the kindest word I could think of). Hillary has done nothing negative toward AA’s. On the other hand, my friends in the DC area tell me the sudden shift to Obama starting with SC was fueled by an emphatic “race traitor” label given to any AA who was even considering supporting Hillary over Obama.
she also has to take the blame for his blunders.
After Iowa people started to believe that a black candidate could actually win. That’s what brought so many black voters over and why not? it IS a wonderful thing that we have our first serious black candidate with a real shot and African Americans need not apologize for enjoying this moment.
The enthusiasm is real, not the result of threats. And from the moment Bill compared the serious and viable Obama campaign to just another Jesse Jackson campaign, they have been using race in a way which has not exactly endeared them to most African American voters. There are also still prominent African Americans supporting HRC and if they are being called “race traitors”, they seem pretty unconcerned.
If Clinton wins the nomination this go-round, I will still vote for her–one way or another she has to come up with the most delegates in a head-to-head contest. But if she savages Obama this time in order to get him out of the picture and set herself up for 2012, that’s when my doomsday scenario kicks in.
I am under no illusions about what lies ahead if McBush gets in.
Not that Obama doesn’t have any, right?
In fact, I think that’s his primary motivation. It’s always been about Obama.
Isn’t it interesting that a 57 (??) year old woman who has been involved in politics her whole life gets hung with the phrase “personal ambition,” but a 40 something who was an community activist maybe a decade ago doesn’t get labeled as such.
Silly media.
If Obama is at the top of the ticket, Colorado is very much a swing state. He also has potential coattails.
If Hillary steals the nomination, we won’t see a Presidential candidate again once the DNC packs up and leaves. As she has made it abundantly clear, she doesn’t care about “small states” like Colorado.
I agree. Her only real chance is to win Indiana and finished close in NC. (and by close, I mean closer than he ran in PA.)
Nothing, no one expected Barack to win PA. He was down considerable two months ago and closed the gap – he delivered. He gained votes, Hillary lost votes.
There are a number of reasons why any candidate wins or losses any state and plays better in parts of the US. The point here is Barack has won more votes, more states, more delegates and raises more money.
He is still gaining on the vote getting and Hillary is still losing votes to him.
So what is different about this morning?
P.s. One pet peeve of the pundits – stop referring to the Black vote as if that is the reason why Barack wins any state. He is winning because of the White vote. There are not enough Black people in America to vote him into office. Last night all I heard was there are Black votes in Philly.
OK, but the 10 point margin was achieved by over 1,000,000 votes overwhelming White.
The black vote is part of his coalition, but you are correct to point out that is not his whole coalition, or even the largest piece nationally. Obama relies on Blacks, Educated whites, and youth
Hillary relies on Seniors, high school educated, latinos and Women over 40.
Neither candidate has been able to make in roads with eithers base.
The only group that neither candidate has a solid grip on is white high school men. and those folks tend to break regionally.
The fact is that neither candidate has been able to crack the others demographic base. Obama has won this race because he organizes better (Won big where she didn’t play-kept the margins down where she had an advantage)and he fundraises better (she stuck in the Bush/McCauliff model-Obama is on the Dean/MoveOn model).
The race is over, Obama has won–but he has to assuage Hillary’s voters and figure out how to hold them in the fall. If Hillary won (which she can’t anymore-all she can do is steal the nomination) she’d have to hold Obama’s voters. If she steals the nomination, there is no force in the world that would allow her to hold Obama’s voters.
….and therefore they do not count. Along with white liberals of course. These are the things I learn from watching Chris Matthews.
“typical white people.”
I’m outraged that BO can use a phrase like that without outcry. If HC said, “typical black people” the shit would have hit the fan.
I’m outraged at the hypocrisy.
Did Hillary win “by double digits” in Pennsylvania?
Watching MSNBC and CNN you might think so. I kept seeing 55% – 45%.
Reading the NYT I got a different set of numbers: 54.7% – 45.3% — a difference of 9.4%.
My calculation says:
HRC: 54.689$% Obama: 45.310% Winning margin of 215,913 votes is a margin of 9.378%. IF it takes double-digits to win the cigar, there was No Cigar in this contest. Should we care? Well, going back to rounding to the nearest whole number, 9% at least SOUNDS less than 10.
Not a material difference, of course, but in the World of Spin, maybe it matters. At least we KNOW that she did NOT win by Double Digits–not a matter of opinion, a matter of math.
It’s just that three of them are to the right of the decimal point!
The media keeps saying 55-45, 10%. I guess it makes for a better story than the truth.
Watching the Democrat party battle each other into submission while McCain glides on to victory.
Sounds to me like the side of everything good and pure has a terminal case of ego-ism.
HEHEHEHE
We’re, at the very least, getting people to register to vote and/or officially switch parties. I suspect anyone that’s not Bush will be enough to get the people back out in November.
If you are right it means the economy isn’t as bad as I think.
Truth is the economy is on the brink of a 1981 type recession. A dead golden retriever with a (d) behinds its name could beat the risen Christ (R) in the fall.
…to that economic expert, J. Sidney McSame III, the bad economy is all in our heads and we should just go out and get a second job and then everything will be ponies and rainbows.
McCain hasn’t been able to crack 45% in the polls, even though the Dems are fighting with each other and he’s coasting without any attacks aimed at him.
McCain is in big trouble in the general.
How exactly do you think McCain will run against Obama (or, in case of miracle, Clinton)? Clinton is bringing up all of Obama’s possible weak points and giving him a chance to deflect; by the time the Fall rolls around, it will all be tired and dis-proven.
McCain has no clue on the economy – and has admitted as much – and his position on the war is counter to that of 80% of Americans. His ethical problems and GOP mainstream positions are getting very little play so far.
In short, as soon as we have a single candidate, there’s going to be a huge shift in the polls and in the focus of the campaign. I don’t see bright things in the future for McCain.
…a man who has lived in a socialist bubble his entire life? Good to know.
Free education, free housing, free medical care. Yep, that Johnny McSame, he’s in touch with real American’s.
who are treated like royalty both inside and outside the military, not to mention all the “socialist ” perks you cite. Then he married a gazillionairess. There’s a real man of the people all right. And for all you McCain fans out there, don’t bother, I know all about how he didn’t use his position to get freed when he was a POW. Never said he didn’t serve with honor. Just that he’s about as guy next door as Bush. Possibly even more ignorant on economics, if being more ignorant than Bush on anything is possible.
And McCain still thinks invading an Arab country, the enemy of Iran, under the control of a secular government, in order to fight Islamic extremism and create a more stable Middle East made sense. Very bright. At least Bush had the excuse of out-doing daddy issues.
hanging out in the bar smoking cigars and yukking it up with his adoring groupies.
Obama and Clinton are engaged in one of the toughest political boot camps in recent memory. Who ever wins the nomination is going to have some razor sharp street fighting skills along with unprecedented organizing and registration in every state. There have been moves and counter moves, setbacks and triumphs, brilliance and bonehead mistakes. Nothing could better prepare the nominee for the General then this dramatic nobody quits duel. This is like NHL playoff hockey that has gone into the third overtime period.
This is as good as it gets for McCain. Once the nomination is over, the gloves will come off and the superbly conditioned nominee is going to start landing blow after blow on his flabby and phony philosophies. Obama has already said that he won’t be as restrained with McCain as he has been with Clinton. You’ll have one of two top notch lawyers going up against a low morals adulterer who dumped his ill first wife to marry money. McCains family values don’t exist and his knowledge of the economy gets filtered through his wife’s money bags. The guy is going to look old and out of touch when the winning nominee starts in on him in earnest.
McCain is toast
I don’t think it’ll be that easy. Not by a longshot. McCain is no Bob Dole ’96.
McCain will ooze “honor” and “integrity.” He’ll leave the Swift-boating to the anonymous 527s that will run Jeremiah “Willie Horton” Wright clips until we’re all physically sick. There will be all kinds of double-entendres and “accidental” things like Osama vs. Obama. Anything they can think of.
It’ll be ugly. But I hope and expect Obama will prevail!
“The senator [John McCain] has got to understand if he’s going to have—he
can’t have it both ways. He can’t take the high horse and then claim the low road.”
George W. Bush
February 17, 2000
From campaign speech in Florence, South Carolina.
This moniker is symbolic of what’s wrong with the Republican Party.
They are the backlash party that can only define themselves by what they are against. They are against uniting our country. They are against tolerating others. Their whole philosophy is based on debasing others. This is why they hate Obama so much that they are willing to root for Clinton. Obama represents intelligence and inclusiveness which are qualities in a leader that Republicans have repudiated. For Obama to be the kind of candidate they would vote for, he would have to abandon his commitment to a campaign based on offering positive solutions to our urgent problems. If the American voter will only vote for those candidates who make Willie Horton ads and obsess about flag pins then we deserve what we get. Oh wait we elected Bush twice. I guess that says it all. We’re already on the road to self-destruction through trivial stupidity.
The new Republicans have become so combative, they won’t vote for anything unless they perceive it as hurting the Dems. We can’t solve any of our problems as long as they would rather screw the Dems then pass legislation to benefit Americans.
They won’t even support the new GI Bill, these great supporters of the troops, because Dems support it. Their tactic of choice has been wedge issues to promote division, fear and hate for decades and people are waking up. That’s why so many old fashioned Republicans are leaving the party and Republican registration is losing ground. Talk about a sickness!
LIAS posts his nonsense in order to get a rise out of you. Don’t feed the troll.
According to the NYT site http://politics.nytimes.com/el… HRC scored a net gain of ONE delegate from PA. How that computes I don’t know–suspect it’s that pesky number rounding thing again–but at this rate, she only needs another 140-150 primaries to catch Obama in elected delegates which, in the end, is going to be the Magic Number. This number doesn’t seem to have gotten too much attention today.
Kos trackers now put the delegate count at 84-74, giving a +10 gain to Clinton, but they note there are still a couple of outstanding delegates and district counts; the final tally is between +7 and +11. This is lower than Clinton expected to receive; Clinton +8 was the pre-election prediction from the Obama campaign.
Hillary won Pennsylvania.
Decisively.
Despite having less $$ , less momentum and less bleeding heart bloggers.
No matter how Obamites try to spin her 9.6% (talk about picking at the crumbs!!) the simple fact is that Illinois’ 2/3 Term Junior Senator is having a little bit of difficulty finishing the job.
Oh, except where you point out that a “2/3 Term Junior Senator” can spin losing results to look bad for Mrs. I’ve Already Had Two Terms.
despite her being the “inevitable candidate” with more money, more big donors, more name recognition, and with most of the Washington establishment behind her.
The reason Obama developed a small donor base driven by the internet was out of necessity as much as design – Hillary had already locked up the big money people. The reason Obama registered millions of new voters and got them to the polls in new states was because Hillary was counting on machine politics in the old states.
The Junior Senator from Illinois has outworked and outorganized someone who felt a sense of entitlement to the nomination. She forgot she has to earn it, and she’s lost it fair and square.
“There is no better lesson than adversity. Every defeat, every heartbreak, every loss, contains its own seed, its own lesson on how to improve your performance the next time.”
~Malcolm X
…the “small donor base,” don’t believe for a second that both of them aren’t sucking on the teats of Wall Street and Big Corporations.
Mark Penn said so.
a month ago and Governor Rendell and the entire PA political machine behind her. Painting her as the underdog is just silly.
So Hillary should have no problem winning North Carolina right? If she’s such an extraordinary candidate who can beat all the odds (starting out 25pts ahead) she should have no problem what-so-ever sweeping the rest of the elections!
Those are her goalposts now. She must win every election.
Neither of the candidates can pull out a decisive win strictly through the remaining elections at this point, barring major screw-ups.
Each appeals more strongly than the other to sections of the Democratic base; those semi-partisan voting blocks each prefer their candidate strongly and will not be convinced (much) by the other side until after the primary is over. The race will continue pretty much as-is…
Right now it’s a matter of delegate math and keeping in the fight until the end. Clinton is on the short end of the stick on both of those points: she needs more delegates to win, and she has cash problems that might limit her ability to fight the primary battle.
But assuming they both make it through to June, one of them will win, and all of the silly “can’t finish the job” and “can’t win X voting block” arguments will go away. African Americans will not defect in large numbers to McCain; Democratic women will not defect in large numbers to McCain. California will not vote for McCain over Obama, nor will Illinois vote for him over Clinton.
Why Endorse? Bayh Asks Hoosier Reps
So Bayh, a Super-Delegate himself endorsed Hillary and tells every other Indiana SD to not endorse (since they’re breaking for Obama) and if they… they are just insignificant?
Classy.